Prediction markets

My good friend Adam Siegel and Inkling Markets gets a major shoutout from Harvard Business: How to Kill Bad Projects

The problem of corrupted information flows stayed with Siegel and ultimately led him to found his current company, Inkling Markets, a software-as-service venture aimed at helping companies conduct successful prediction markets. What does a prediction market have to do with eliminating spin? Siegel sees an opportunity to produce higher quality decision support in businesses by tapping anonymous input “from people who aren’t normally asked their opinions, in samples large enough to filter out individual agendas.”

Prediction markets are a great way to include voices in the conversation that aren't normally at the table, while at the same time avoiding the problems of groupthink.

Giving thanks to Steve Ballmer

I made a killing in an Inkling prediction market this past weekend when the MicroHoo talks went down the tubes: Will Microsoft announce a successful buyout of Yahoo! in 2008?. I started shorting the deal last week at $84, and just kept buying all the way down.

I have no idea how the corporate world works, and how you are supposed to consummate these sorts of deals. For all I know it's against the law to talk to the buy-out target before the fact. Regardless, I think the whole notion is stupid. Think how much better this would have gone in a transparent world? Where Steve sends Jerry an email, or even better-- a tweet, and says, "Can we talk? I want to share an idea we've had with you." Then they get together over a beer, "discover" that they have pretty different cultures, that there are significant barriers, and that maybe it wasn't such a good idea after all.

Maybe things just aren't done that way in business-- how would I know? We don't deal in numbers that big in academia. I do know that a little transparency might have led to a whole lot more trust, and if the deal couldn't be made at least they wouldn't be facing such a brutal and very public failure.

Regardless, their failure catapulted me into the top 100 traders at Inkling, and on to the leader-board for the week. And for that I am thankful!

My new Barack Obama Inkling market

I started a new Inkling market: Will Barack Obama go bowling again before November 4, 2008? It addresses a serious question, will he let his image as a bowling klutz stand, or might he take some midnight lessons with some bowling guru, e.g. Earl Anthony (if he was still alive), and take another run at it?

I'm of a mind that Mr. Obama will not want that bowling video to run over-and-over-and-over like some previous tank footage... I think the best way for him to erase that video from the publics mind is to get back on the horse, and to knock down some pins. We know he is athletic, and I'm thinking he could make rapid improvements in his game with a little practice.

If I was allowed to invest in a market I'd created I'd be going long. Get yourself over to Inkling and make an investment...