Tuesday, May 29, 2007

American Idol follow-up

Bill Tancer at Hitwise Intelligence has an update on the Google search traffic that lead to his incorrect predicton that Blake Lewis would win American Idol.
As I wrote in last week's TIME column, predicting American Idol results based on search term data is not an easy feat, really more art than science. Last week based on search terms for the week ending 5/19/07, Blake Lewis led Jordin Sparks in overall search term volume, the basis for my prediction that Blake would win. The biggest challenge in making an idol prediction using search term data is that you can't factor the last performance and vote (on Tuesday evening, our search term data is weekly and updates on Monday for the previous Saturday).

What a crock. If if you use that logic then you would conclude that you should never predict anything based on search traffic. As you will remember, I decided to go with his prediction and invested my hard earned inkles on Blake to win. I lost $650 in the process. Next time I will stick with the wisdom of the crowd.

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